Public support for ANZUS: Evidence of a generational shift?

Abstract

Recent polling has shown that younger Australians are less likely to support the alliance with the USA than older Australians. This may reflect the passing of the wartime generation from the Australian population and the rise of a new, better educated, more multicultural Australia less sympathetic to the USA. Some have concluded that Australia may be undergoing a generational shift away from alignment with the USA. In this article, I pool all Australian Election Studies from 1993 to 2013 to assess this possibility. I find that ageing, not formative political experiences, pushes Australians in a more pro-American direction. Additionally, degree holders and Australians from non-Anglo-Australian backgrounds are slightly less likely to support Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty (ANZUS), but the alliance still commands comfortable majority support even here. ANZUS is therefore likely to remain a popular component of Australian foreign policy for the foreseeable future.最近的民调显示，相对于老辈，年轻的澳大利亚人不大会支持美澳联盟。这也许是因为战争一代逝去，受过良好教育、多文化的新一代对美国较少好感。一些人认为澳大利亚正在经历一个代际转移，不再站美国一边。笔者网罗了1993至2013年澳大利亚的全部选举研究，以评估这种可能性。笔者发现，年龄的增长而不是形成阶段的政治经历造成澳大利亚人更为亲美。再有，有学历的和非盎克鲁撒克逊背景的澳大利亚人对澳新美安保条约的支持度要稍低一些。但即便是这部分人口，支持美澳联盟的也占大多数。在可预见的未来，澳新美联盟依然会是澳大利亚对外政策得民意的一部分。