Public Sector Borrowing and the Public Sector Balance Sheet

Abstract

In his Budget Statement this year the Chancellor restated his medium-term financial strategy (MTFS) and in particular his objectives for the public sector borrowing requirement (PSBR). He said, ‘Since its inception in 1980 the MTFS has indicated a steadily declining path for the PSBR expressed as a percentage of GDP. We have now reached what I judge to be its appropriate destination: a PSBR of 1 per cent of GDP. My aim will be to keep it there over the years ahead. This note considers the implications of that scale of borrowing for the balance sheet position of the public sector. We are able to do this with more confidence thanks to recent publication by the CSO of new figures for the balance sheet positions of all sectors of the economy up to the end of 1985. Prior to that publication, the latest figures available for the overall balance sheet position of the public sector had referred to 1975. The new data modify the picture of recent trends, without changing their character fundamentally.