Public responses to COVID-19 case disclosure and their spatial implications.

Abstract

We study how the public changes their mobility and retail spending patterns as precautionary responses to the disclosed location of COVID‐19 cases. To look into the underlying mechanisms, we investigate how such change varies spatially and whether there is any spatial spillover or substitution. We use the daily data of cell phone‐based mobility and credit card transactions between February 10 and May 31 in both 2019 and 2020 in Seoul, South Korea, and employ the empirical approach analyzing the year‐over‐year percent change for the mobility and consumption outcomes. Results report that one additional COVID‐19 case within the last 14 days decreased nonresident inflow and retail spending by 0.40 and 0.65 percentage points, respectively. Then, we also find evidence of spatial heterogeneity: the mobility and retail performances of neighborhoods with higher residential population density were more resilient to COVID‐19 case information while neighborhoods with higher levels of land‐use diversity and retail agglomeration experienced a greater localized demand shock. This heterogeneity is not negligible. For example, one additional COVID‐19 case in neighborhoods in the bottom 20% for population density led to a decline of 1.2 percentage points in retail spending, while other neighborhoods experienced a less negative impact. Finally, we find a significant spatial spillover effect of disclosed COVID‐19 information instead of spatial substitution. One additional COVID‐19 case in geographically adjacent areas within the last 14 days reduced nonresident inflow and retail spending in the subject neighborhood by 0.06 and 0.09 percentage points, respectively.