Abstract

The largest project managers and adjudicators of a country, both by number of projects and by cost, are public procurement agencies. Therefore, knowing and characterising public procurement announcements (tenders) is fundamental for managing public resources well. This article presents the case of public procurement in Spain, analysing a dataset from 2012 to 2018: 58,337 tenders with a cost of 31,426 million euros. Many studies of public procurement have been conducted globally or theoretically, but there is a dearth of data analysis, especially regarding Spain. A quantitative, graphical, and statistical description of the dataset is presented. Mainly, the analysis is of the relation between the award price and the bidding price. An award price estimator is proposed that uses the random forest regression method. A good estimator would be very useful and valuable for companies and public procurement agencies. It would be a key tool in their project management decision making. Finally, a similar analysis, employing a dataset from European countries, is presented to compare and generalise the results and conclusions. Hence, this is a novel study which fills a gap in the literature.

Highlights

  • Every year, public authorities in European countries spend around 14% of GDP on public procurement, about 1.9 trillion euros [1], which is the latest estimate (2017) not including spending by utility companies

  • Random forests (RF) has been trained with 80% of tenders (46,670). e remaining 20% (11,667) have been used as the test group

  • As has already been mentioned, if the estimator were perfect, all points would have to be on the line at 45 degrees

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Summary

Introduction

Public authorities in European countries spend around 14% of GDP on public procurement, about 1.9 trillion euros [1], which is the latest estimate (2017) not including spending by utility companies. At the European and Spanish levels, laws have been developed related to the reuse of public sector information and procurement or contracting in the public sector. Data Fields of Spanish Public Procurement Notices. E information of public procurement notices is defined in Spanish Law 9/2017, Annex III “Information that has to appear in the announcements.”. P.S.C.P. has an open data section for the reuse of this information (in compliance with the publicity obligations established in Law 9/2017) which will be used in this article to generate the dataset. Status of the tender during the development of the Tender status procedure: prior notice, in time, pending adjudication, awarded, resolved or cancelled

Summary description of the contract
Statistical Analysis of the Dataset
Award Price Estimator
Conclusions and Future
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