Abstract
With the COVID-19 pandemic infecting millions of people, large-scale isolation policies have been enacted across the globe. To assess the impact of isolation measures on deaths, hospitalizations, and economic output, we create a mathematical model to simulate the spread of COVID-19, incorporating effects of restrictive measures and segmenting the population based on health risk and economic vulnerability. Policymakers make isolation policy decisions based on current levels of disease spread and economic damage. For 76 weeks in a population of 330 million, we simulate a baseline scenario leaving strong isolation restrictions in place, rapidly reducing isolation restrictions for non-seniors shortly after outbreak containment, and gradually relaxing isolation restrictions for non-seniors. We use 76 weeks as an approximation of the time at which a vaccine will be available. In the baseline scenario, there are 235,724 deaths and the economy shrinks by 34.0%. With a rapid relaxation, a second outbreak takes place, with 525,558 deaths, and the economy shrinks by 32.3%. With a gradual relaxation, there are 262,917 deaths, and the economy shrinks by 29.8%. We also show that hospitalizations, deaths, and economic output are quite sensitive to disease spread by asymptomatic people. Strict restrictions on seniors with very gradual lifting of isolation for non-seniors results in a limited number of deaths and lesser economic damage. Therefore, we recommend this strategy and measures that reduce non-isolated disease spread to control the pandemic while making isolation economically viable.
Highlights
As of May 1st, 2020, the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide stands at over 3,240,000, and at least 230,000 individuals have died from this disease since the first reports of a pneumonia of unknown etiology in December of 2019 [1,2,3]
The economy shrinks by 32.3% by the end of the simulation. (iii) Lastly, with a very gradual relaxation of isolation restrictions for the non-seniors, the number of deaths is slightly higher than the number in the baseline scenario and the economy recovers slowly but steadily
We present the health and economic dynamics of our model below, and a complete mathematical description appears in the supplementary material
Summary
As of May 1st, 2020, the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide stands at over 3,240,000, and at least 230,000 individuals have died from this disease since the first reports of a pneumonia of unknown etiology in December of 2019 [1,2,3]. Isolation policies may be an effective short-term measure, but indefinite isolation until a vaccine becomes available would prevent billions of individuals worldwide from receiving an income and could devastate countries with weaker economies. This economic harm could increase mortality given the correlation between mortality and income [7, 8]
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