Public Perspectives on Nuclear Security

Abstract

Employing data from two dozen national surveys of the American people conducted between 1993 and 2011, we analyze trends in mass views on key dimensions of nuclear security. We specifically address four questions. (a) How are the risks of nuclear conflict and further nuclear proliferation assessed? (b) How does the public view the relevance and value of US nuclear weapons? (c) What future directions are preferred for the US nuclear weapons stockpile? (d) How are public views about retaining US nuclear weapons structured? Our data show that nuclear conflict with Iran and North Korea and the risks of nuclear weapons or materials being acquired by transnational terrorist groups are seen as the greatest nuclear threats. Most Americans continue to value the efficacy of nuclear deterrence, consider nuclear abolition to be desirable but not yet feasible, and support modest mutual reductions in nuclear weapons. Employing causal modeling, we find that mass beliefs about the importance of retaining US nuclear weapons are hierarchically structured in coherent ways, and therefore are likely to be both resilient and relevant to policy debates on nuclear security.