Public Opposition to Sanctuary Cities in Texas: Criminal Threat or Immigration Threat?*

Abstract

ObjectivesTo assess predictors of sanctuary city attitudes in Texas. Specifically, to assess whether a criminal threat or immigration threat hypothesis better explains attitudes toward sanctuary cities.MethodsPooled representative sample surveys of Texas respondents conducted during the first half of 2017, combined with county‐level Census and crime data. Regression analysis and Monte Carlo simulations.ResultsCompared to the criminal threat hypothesis (as measured by county change in crime rates), the immigration threat hypothesis (as measured by Latino growth and Latino population) better explains Texans' attitudes toward sanctuary cities.ConclusionsDespite elite and media narratives linking sanctuary cities to crime, respondents' attitudes toward sanctuary cities are unrelated to physical crime threat and are structured by localized experience with immigration—specifically—Latino growth.