Public Opinion Spread and Guidance Strategy under COVID-19: A SIS Model Analysis

Abstract

Both the suddenness and seriousness of COVID-19 have caused a variety of public opinions on social media, which becomes the focus of social attention. This paper aims to analyze the strategies regarding the prevention and guidance of public opinion spread under COVID-19 in social networks from the perspective of the emotional characteristics of user texts. Firstly, a model is established to mine text-based emotional tendency based on the Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) model. In addition, a mathematical and simulation analysis of the model is presented. Finally, an empirical study based on the data of microblog contents regarding COVID-19 public opinion in the Sina Weibo platform from January to March 2020 is conducted to analyze the factors that boost and hinder COVID-19 public opinion. The results show that when positive emotion is higher than 0.8, the spread of negative public opinion can be blocked. When the negative emotion and neutral emotion are both below 0.2, the spread of COVID-19 public opinion would be weakened. To accurately guide public opinion on COVID-19, the government authorities should establish a public opinion risk evaluation and an early warning mechanism. Platforms should strengthen public opinion supervision and users should improve their media literacy. The media organizations should insist on positive reporting, improve social cohesion, and guide the trend of public opinion.