Public opinion in the gray zone

Abstract

Chapter 7 demonstrates that support for NATO has increased as Russia invades a neighbouring country - this is hardly surprising and thoroughly predicted by theories of public opinion in times of war. This chapter unpacks this headline, considering not just Russian and Chinese pre-war behavior but the underlying foreign policy attitudes of citizens across three different NATO member states. When gray zone tactics were the preferred mode of action for both Russia and China, were citizens in NATO countries such as the U.S., the UK and a former Soviet state like Lithuania in agreement as to how to respond to Russian and Chinese threats? Using data from the Gray Zone Security Survey on threat perceptions fielded in March 2021, the study finds that although NATO is generally perceived as the first port of call, the dynamics underlying such support vary between these three countries. Between one third to 40% of respondents have no clear preference for relying on a pivotal member of NATO such as the U.S., or an organization whose membership significantly overlaps with that of NATO (the EU), when they are at odds with China. Findings are discussed in the context of the current war in Ukraine.