Public opinion exists, but is it always detectable?

Abstract

The article examines the problem of the reliability of the results of public opinion polls, taking into account the fact that the respondents’ answers, due to various reasons, do not always reflect their true opinion. The article presents the results of an expert survey, during which experts assessed the extent of deviations in the results of public opinion polls due to the tendency of respondents to give “conformist” answers, caused by the fear of expressing views that may be punished by the authorities, in various situations: when conducting surveys in the regions of Ukraine, which are controlled by the Ukrainian authorities; if surveys are conducted by Ukrainian research institutions in the territories of Ukraine temporarily occupied by Russia; if survey are conducted by Russian research institutions in the territories of Ukraine temporarily occupied by Russia; when surveys are conducted in the territory of Russia. Both the results of the analysis of poll studies and the results of an expert survey indicate that there is always a problem in public opinion polls of the insincerity of respondents’ answers and a systematic error caused by the bias of the sample in the direction of respondents “loyal to the government” or respondents who consider themselves to be in the “ideological majority”. This problem is significantly exacerbated in the conditions of strengthening authoritarian tendencies in society or an atmosphere of intolerance, including that caused by war. Under certain circumstances, these factors can significantly reduce the reliability of the results of public opinion polls. The magnitude of the shift in survey results caused by the influence of these factors will vary significantly depending on changes in the socio-psychological atmosphere of society, the subject of research and questions, and the level of their sensitivity.