Abstract
The deductive paradigm has produced notable successes in epidemiology and public health. But while deductive logic has made a substantial contribution to the public health field, it must be recognized that there are also limits to that contribution. This report examines one such limit: the need for non-deductive models in public health reasoning. The findings of a study of public health reasoning in 879 members of the public are reported. Four non-deductive strategies were chosen for their capacity to bridge gaps in one’s knowledge. It emerged that subjects were adept at using these strategies in the absence of knowledge to arrive at judgements about public health problems. The implications of this finding for public health communication are discussed.
Highlights
Deductive reasoning is a powerful logical resource
In serving to bridge gaps in our knowledge of public health problems, the four forms of reasoning examined in this study can be seen to function as cognitive heuristics
This study has shown that subjects are adept at using non-deductive reasoning strategies in their deliberations about public health problems
Summary
The limits of deduction Deduction involves linear, unidirectional reasoning typically from one or two premises to a single conclusion. On account of a lack of knowledge and other epistemic limitations, people employ reasoning strategies about public health problems which differ markedly from deduction. Four such strategies include arguing from ignorance and from authority, and the use of circular and analogical reasoning. A review of the world literature by Brown and his colleagues allowed them to claim that this knowledge base had been exhaustively searched Under these epistemic conditions, a lack of evidence was a strong rational basis for the conclusion that scrapie is not transmissible to humans. Arguments from ignorance: Risk assessment of the transmissibility of scrapie to humans
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