Public Health Impacts of Combustion Emissions in the United Kingdom

Abstract

Combustion emissions are a major contributor to degradation of air quality and pose a risk to human health. We evaluate and apply a multiscale air quality modeling system to assess the impact of combustion emissions on UK air quality. Epidemiological evidence is used to quantitatively relate PM(2.5) exposure to risk of early death. We find that UK combustion emissions cause ∼13,000 premature deaths in the UK per year, while an additional ∼6000 deaths in the UK are caused by non-UK European Union (EU) combustion emissions. The leading domestic contributor is transport, which causes ∼7500 early deaths per year, while power generation and industrial emissions result in ∼2500 and ∼830 early deaths per year, respectively. We estimate the uncertainty in premature mortality calculations at -80% to +50%, where results have been corrected by a low modeling bias of 28%. The total monetized life loss in the UK is estimated at £6-62bn/year or 0.4-3.5% of gross domestic product. In Greater London, where PM concentrations are highest and are currently in exceedance of EU standards, we estimate that non-UK EU emissions account for 30% of the ∼3200 air quality-related deaths per year. In the context of the European Commission having launched infringement proceedings against the UK Government over exceedances of EU PM air quality standards in London, these results indicate that further policy measures should be coordinated at an EU-level because of the strength of the transboundary component of PM pollution.