Abstract
The 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) has dramatically decreased pneumococcal disease incidence, and the 13-valent vaccine (PCV13) protects against 6 additional Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes. A decision-analytic model was constructed to evaluate the impact of infant vaccination with PCV13 versus PCV7 on pneumococcal disease incidence and mortality as well as the incremental benefit of a serotype catch-up program. PCV13 effectiveness was extrapolated from observed PCV7 data, using assumptions regarding serotype prevalence and PCV13 protection against additional serotypes. The model predicts that PCV13 is more effective and cost saving compared with PCV7, preventing 106,000 invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases and 2.9 million pneumonia cases, and saving $11.6 billion over a 10-year period. The serotype catch-up program would prevent an additional 12,600 IPD cases and 404,000 pneumonia cases, and save an additional $737 million compared with no catch-up program.
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