Abstract
In order to realize effective asset management of a number of distribution networks, utilization status of individual network should be evaluated by taking into account not only the current status but also the future situation. As a first step for this purpose, this study proposes a model to estimate the 8760 hours time-series of residual electricity load due to the high penetration of photovoltaic power generation in arbitrary distribution network. The model is developed based on the publically available statistics such as the Grid-Square Statistics which is an integrated data base on population, number of employee, etc. in each 500 square meters area, dividing the whole area of Japan by latitude and the longitude. The aggregated electricity demand in each distribution network is calculated by determining the service territory based on map information. The accuracy of estimated demand for typical distribution networks is evaluated by comparing with the observed demand. As an example of application of proposed model, the residual load characteristics in the case of high penetration of photovoltaic power generation and increased electrification ratio of energy demand is evaluated for various distribution networks in the Chubu region, Japan.
Published Version
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