Abstract
Trends in public attitudes toward abortion, general acceptance of same-sex relationships, and same-sex marriage are examined across regions and parties in the United States. Relative to Americans living outside the South, Southerners are less accepting of same-sex relationships, and these regional differences appear to be increasing over time. On these issues, multivariate analysis suggests that Democrats and Republicans are moving in opposite directions, with Democrats becoming more accepting of same-sex relationships, and Republicans (relatively) less so. With respect to abortion, regional differences do not appear to be increasing or decreasing over time. Both Republicans and Democrats are becoming more accepting of legal abortion, once the effects of other variables have been controlled, but the rate of change is substantially more rapid among Democrats. Thus, party and regional polarization on issues involving sexual morality seems likely to continue.
Highlights
An enormous body of research has shown that religious values and beliefs have traditionally been strong predictors of certain issue attitudes, and that the moral conservatism of many conservative Protestants has served as the basis for partisan change and electoral choices
Issues involving aspects of sexual morality, such as abortion, LGBTQ rights, and same-sex marriage, seem likely to remain fertile sources of party polarization, even as mass attitudes on these issues may be becoming more permissive over time
The processes by which these issues are becoming polarized seem quite different, and comparisons across regions and parties reveal distinctions that may be concealed in aggregate analyses
Summary
An enormous body of research has shown that religious values and beliefs have traditionally been strong predictors of certain issue attitudes (for an overview, see Jelen, 2009), and that the moral conservatism of many conservative Protestants (and others) has served as the basis for partisan change and electoral choices. The high proportion of evangelical Protestants has long rendered Southerners unusually conservative on lifestyle issues. This religio/cultural conservatism has, since at least the 1980s, resulted in a solidly Democratic region becoming disproportionately Republican (Black & Black, 1992; Green, Kellstedt, Smidt, & Guth, 2003). A number of states had passed laws prohibiting discrimination in housing and in hiring, and several states had either legalized same-sex marriage or have established comparable legal statuses, such as civil unions (National Council of State Legislatures, 2014) Some of these changes occurred as the result of judicial decisions
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