PUB128 Lung Cancer Incidence Trends in Belarus, 1991-2014

Abstract

Lung cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer among men and the most frequent cause of cancer mortality in Belarus while the prevalence of smoking remains unacceptably high. The purpose of this research was to investigate trends in lung cancer incidence rates in Belarus. Data on cases of lung cancer (ICD C34) diagnosed during 24-year period (1991–2014) were obtained from National Cancer Registry. Age-standardized rates (ASRs, World) and cumulative risk were computed for lung cancer overall and by gender. Annual percent change (APC) was calculated by linear regression to characterize trends in lung cancer incidence rates over time for the overall population, by gender, by age group, and by age group within gender. During 1991–2014, a total of 103308 lung cancer cases were reported. More incident cases of lung cancer were reported in males (90988) than females (12320). During this period, the average ASRs for lung cancer were 28.66 per 100 000 population and much greater among males (64.24) than females (5.12). The average ASRs were highest among those aged 70-74 years in males (468.2 per 100 000) and 75-79 years in females (45.9 per 100 000). ASRs for males peaked in 1996 (71.2 per 100 000), for females - in 2014 (6.01 per 100 000). From 1991 through 2014, lung cancer incidence rates slightly declined with an APC of -0.52% (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.71, -0.33). This decline was pronounced for urban population (APC -1.03%; 95% CI -1.22, -0.84) while for rural population increase was observed with APC 0.46% (CI 0.17, 0.75). Among men, lung cancer incidence decreased with APC -0.63% (95% CI -0.83, -0.43), with more expressed tendency in urban population. However, for women incidence rates increased (APC 0.67%; CI 0.15, 1.19). Mean cumulative risk was 12.27% (95% CI 12.09, 12.44) for men and 1.21% (95% CI 1.17, 1.25) for women. When age subgroups were examined, declines were observed among males aged <70 with highest APC in group 50-59 years (-1.46%; CI -1.9, -1.01). In elder population rates were stable (70-79 years) of increased (>80 years). Among female significant upward trend was observed for middle age groups (40-59 years) and for women aged >80 with highest APC 1.84% (CI 0.95, 2.74) in age group 40-49 years. Lung cancer mortality trends in male are on a downwards path, while incidence in female may continue to rise, points to an urgent need for prevention strategies among women.