Psychology, Interpretation and Knowledge

<p>Our modern society relies on well-functioning transport systems providing mobility, transport safety and regularity. Maintaining the operational state of roads and railways during extreme weather events or other natural events is an important and demanding task. Natural events may cause damage to transportation assets, which can immediately or over time result in functional loss of a transportation line. For instance, a reduced culvert capacity due to debris deposition and clogging, could cause flooding of a road/rail. Some natural events can lead directly to loss of service, even without damaging an asset, like the occurrence of avalanches on a transportation line, blocking the related traffic. To reduce risks of failures posed by natural hazards, it is essential to assess vulnerability of transportation networks to such events.</p><p>A well-established way to analyse vulnerability is to use damage-, loss- or fragility functions. Such functions can express both functional vulnerability, representing the functional loss for a transportation line, and structural vulnerability representing damage degree or the exceedance probability of damage levels pertinent to a transportation asset. These functions can all be expressed in terms of event intensity, which is a parameter characterizing the damaging potential of a natural event.</p><p>In order to analyse functional vulnerability, various asset types with their interdependencies i.e. network topology and geographical coincidence must be considered. Here, the applied damage and fragility functions for evaluating structural vulnerability must account for location specific data on assets and asset properties. The review of existing damage-, loss- and fragility functions showed that these are not sufficient for intended analysis and need to be updated to consider various natural events and related failure modes. Recommendations are provided on how to elaborate new damage-, loss- and fragility functions to overcome a large number of uncertainties related to impacts of natural events on infrastructure and account for resistance of infrastructure. These recommendations concern both the choice of intensity parameters for different types of hazards and definition of possible failure modes, the methods for developing the functions and the assessment of the relationship between structural vulnerability of the asset and functional vulnerability.</p><p>The research leading to these and future results receives funding from the European Community’s H2020 Programme MG-7-1-2017 Resilience to extreme (natural and man-made) events, under Grant Agreement number: 769255 - "GIS-based infrastructure management system for optimized response to extreme events of terrestrial transport networks (SAFEWAY)".</p>

Variations in subsurface flow processes through a karst aquifer that feeds Bear Spring in southeastern Minnesota were captured on a temporary seismic network during injection experiments and a natural recharge event. Each experiment involved injecting ∼13,000 L of water into an overflow spring, and the natural event was triggered by a large rainstorm of ∼70 min in duration. During the injection experiments, the largest amplitude signals in the ground velocity seismograms occurred as the water first fell onto the rock at the overflow spring and as the large slug of water reached a sump or water‐filled passage. During the natural rainstorm event, the overflow spring began flowing and total spring discharge (perennial emanation points and the overflow spring) increased from ∼100 to 300 L/s. Seismic signals during and following the rain event include broadband noise from raindrops impacting the ground, as well as large amplitude signals while water levels rose; the latter occurred over a 5‐s period, producing multiple pulses of ground motion up to ∼0.5 mm/s. Based on seismic array analysis, high frequency signals during the natural recharge event and one of the injection experiments are largely sourced from south of the array, where a sump exists and the conduit orientation changes, but additional modeling is required to further understand which of a set of possible mechanisms is mostly likely the cause of these seismic signals.

To determine whether recent seismicity around the High Dam Lake (Lake Nasser) in the Aswan region is induced or triggered by the lake reservoir or is of natural origin, we analyzed moment tensor solutions and source spectra of recent recorded earthquakes in the area. The earthquakes' focal mechanisms, including source mechanism parameters and source spectra, can give important information to assist in discriminating between triggered and natural seismic events. In the current work, we computed moment tensors and stress drop values for six recently triggered earthquakes recorded by the Egyptian National Seismic Network (ENSN) around Lake Nasser, Aswan area, with local magnitudes between 3.0 and 4.6, as well as 40 nearby earthquakes in and around Egypt with local magnitudes ranging from 4.0 to 5.5, that are known as natural events. We performed full waveform inversion for the studied seismic events, including the dominant double-couple (DC) signature, and also completed moment tensor solutions. Our results show that most triggered events demonstrated significant non-double-couple components. The focal depths of most Aswan seismic events calculated in the current study are significantly shallower than the estimated focal depths for inter-plate and intraplate earthquakes in and around the area under investigation. The focal depths of 80% of the triggered events are shallower than 10 km, while 80% of the tectonic earthquakes are deeper than 15 km. On the other hand, stress and source spectra of the studied events are used as another key to deeply study the source mechanics and physics of natural and triggered events in this area.

The sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) is a widely spread and important multipurpose tree species in the Mediterranean area, which has played an important role in human history. Natural events, such as glaciations, and human influence played significant roles in the distribution and genetic makeup of the sweet chestnut. In order to better understand how natural and human-mediated past events affected the current genetic diversity and structure of the sweet chestnut, we analysed populations from Central Europe and the western part of the Balkan Peninsula, utilizing ten polymorphic nuclear microsatellite markers. The study revealed the existence of three genetically and, to a large extent, geographically distinct and well-defined groups of sweet chestnut populations. Two not entirely separated groups of populations were detected in the northern part of the studied area and one in the southern. Our results indicate that the genetic structure of sweet chestnut populations in Central Europe and the western part of the Balkan Peninsula is the result of both natural colonization events and significant and lengthy human impact. Furthermore, it has been proven that the gene flow between cultivated/grafted trees’ and wild chestnut stands can influence their genetic structure. However, our results reveal that cultivated-to-wild introgression in the sweet chestnut is dependent on the close proximity of chestnut orchards and naturally occurring populations.

<p>Deep bottom trawling often occurs in the vicinities of submarine canyons since these morphological features act as nursery areas for commercial species. Previous studies in the submarine canyons incising the NW Mediterranean margin have highlighted that bottom trawling resuspends large volumes of sediment which are partly transported downcanyon as sediment gravity flows. To assess the contribution of downward particle fluxes in La Fonera Canyon (NW Mediterranean) linked to natural sediment transport events and bottom trawling, a near-bottom mooring equipped with a 24-cup sediment trap, a current meter, and a turbidimeter was deployed during 2017 in its axis (1200 m water depth), next to a trawling ground. Temporal variations in the quantity and composition of trapped particulate organic matter were assessed through the analysis of organic carbon (OC), total nitrogen (TN) and several biomarkers (lignins, cutin acids, p-hydroxybenzenes, benzoic acids, amino acid-derived products, dicarboxylic acids, and fatty acids).</p><p>High downward particle fluxes (60-100 g·m<sup>-2</sup>·d<sup>-1</sup>) were registered in autumn and winter associated to torrential river discharges, seasonal storms and dense shelf water cascading. During these natural events, sediment transported downcanyon had high organic matter contents that were mostly terrigenous in origin. However, the highest downward particle flux (>140 g·m<sup>-2</sup>·d<sup>-1</sup>) was recorded in the onset of the bottom trawling season in March, after a 2-month seasonal trawling closure. During the following summer months no major natural sediment transport events occurred, but the high frequency of bottom trawling activities (10-26 hauls·week<sup>-1</sup>) near the sediment trap caused considerably high downward particulate fluxes (80-125 g·m<sup>-2</sup>·d<sup>-1</sup>) during this season. Compared to autumn and winter months, sediment transferred downcanyon caused by trawling had lower organic matter contents, mostly consisting in refractory compounds (i.e. lignins, p-hydroxybenzenes and benzoic acids) with similar concentrations to those observed in the bottom sediments of the trawling grounds, confirming that this material originates from these areas. During periods with less trawling activity, lower sediment fluxes (30-50 g·m<sup>-2</sup>·d<sup>-1</sup>) with higher organic matter contents enriched in labile compounds (i.e. amino acid-derived products, di-carboxylic acids, and fatty acids) were recorded. These results highlight how bottom trawling activities on the flanks of submarine canyons modify the supply of sediment and organic matter downcanyon. The low-quality of organic matter transferred by bottom trawling activities may ultimately affect the fragile ecosystems dwelling in these deep environments.</p>

Turfgrass accounts for a large percentage of land in urban and suburban areas and thus, it is important to understand the effects of turfgrass on surface water quality. Runoff from natural and simulated rain events was collected from a cool season turfgrass mixture on an undisturbed sandy loam soil for two years. Field plots with runoff collectors had different soil P levels as a result of prior fertilization practices. The treatments for this study were fertilizer application levels and included no fertilizer, nitrogen (N) only, phosphorus (P) only, or both N and P. Runoff volumes were measured and a subsample was saved for dissolved and total P analysis. Phosphorus losses were 0.05% of fertilizer applied for both dissolved and total P. Low mass losses of dissolved P were observed (<0.05 kg ha -1 yr -1 ) and can be attributed to the small amount of precipitation that became runoff. Application of N or P did not affect the amount of runoff from natural or simulated events. Fertilization with N or P increased the concentration of P in the runoff to a similar extent. Soil P levels had no effect on runoff P concentrations or mass losses, despite Morgan extractable soil P levels ranging from 3.7 to 35.6 mg kg -1 at the 0-5 cm depth. The simulated events supported the data observed from the natural events in most cases. Significant differences in infiltration rate among treatments were found on 2 of the 6 simulation dates. Significant differences in P loss were only observed when no precipitation fell between a fertilization event and a simulated runoff event. The results of this study suggest that fertilization of established turfgrass does not result in a reduction in runoff volume when visual quality responses to N are similar to those observed in this study. Since increased P runoff concentrations were associated with N and P fertilization, the environmental impacts of turfgrass could be reduced by withholding or limiting N and P fertilizers under these conditions. Soil P level was not a good indicator of P concentration in runoff for this sandy loam and across the range of soil P levels seen in this study. Thus, predictions of runoff P loss based on soil P levels may be misleading or inaccurate for turfgrass areas.

As recently as 2015, it was common in the scientific literature to find assertions that the risk of triggering a damaging earthquake by hydraulic fracturing (HF) — an industrial process where pressurized fluids are used to create or open fractures within rock layers — could be treated as negligible. However, that viewpoint has changed dramatically. It is now clear that the hazard from induced seismicity (including HF) exceeds the natural hazard in low-to-moderate seismicity environments. As such, to mitigate risk to vulnerable and critical infrastructure, it is important to address the likelihood and triggering mechanisms of HF-induced earthquakes. Although it is sometimes claimed that HF-induced earthquakes can be accurately predicted, avoided or controlled, critical knowledge gaps still remain. In this Review, we discuss six fundamental issues surrounding induced seismicity, focusing specifically on HF-induced events, including: the triggering mechanisms of HF seismicity; the relationship between tectonic environment and HF seismicity; the similarities and differences between induced and natural events; the damage potential associated with HF-induced seismicity; whether HF-induced events can be predicted; and the relative hazards of HF-induced and natural seismic events. We finish by outlining future research directions that are required to minimize the uncertainty and hazard that surround induced seismicity. Hydraulic fracturing can trigger seismic events though a variety of direct and indirect mechanisms, and could result in injuries, fatalities and damage to critical infrastructure. This Review considers six fundamental issues to address how induced seismicity can be predicted or mitigated.

Abstract. Hypoxia is a well-recognized condition reducing biodiversity and increasing greenhouse gas emissions in aquatic ecosystems, especially under warmer temperatures of tropical waters. Anoxia is a natural event commonly intensified by human-induced organic inputs in inland waters. Here, we assessed the partial pressure of O2 (pO2) and CO2 (pCO2), and the ratio between them (represented by the respiration index, RI) in two oligotrophic lakes of the Atlantic Tropical Forest, encompassing dry and rainy seasons over 19 months. We formulated the hypothesis that thermal stratification events could be coupled to natural hypoxia in deep waters of both lakes. Our results indicated a persistence of CO2 emissions from these tropical lakes to the atmosphere, on average ± standard error (SE) of 17.4 mg C m−2 h−1 probably subsided by terrestrial C inputs from the forest. Additionally, the thermal stratification during the end of the dry season and the rainy summer was coupled to anoxic events and very low RI in deep waters, and to significantly higher pO2 and RI at the surface (about 20 000 μatm and 1.0, respectively). In contrast, the water mixing during dry seasons at the beginning of the winter was related to a strong destratification in pO2, pCO2 and RI in surface and deep waters, without reaching any anoxic conditions throughout the water column. These findings confirm our hypothesis, suggesting that lakes of the Atlantic Tropical Forest could be dynamic, but especially sensitive to organic inputs. Natural anoxic events indicate that tropical oligotrophic lakes might be highly influenced by human land uses, which increase organic discharges into the watershed.

Decoding a complex record of anthropogenic and natural impacts in the Lake of Cavazzo sediments, NE Italy

Abstract. Good practices in heritage conservation are based on accurate information about conditions, materials, and transformation of built heritage sites. Therefore, heritage site documentation and its analysis are essential parts for their conservation. In addition, the devastating effects of recent catastrophic events in different geographical areas have highly affected cultural heritage places. Such areas include and are not limited to South Europe, South East Asia, and Central America. Within this framework, appropriate acquisition of information can effectively provide tools for the decision-making process and management. Heritage documentation is growing in innovation, providing dynamic opportunities for effectively responding to the alarming rate of destruction by natural events, conflicts, and negligence. In line with these considerations, a multidisciplinary team – including students and faculty members from Carleton University and Yangon Technological University, as well as staff from the Department of Archaeology, National Museum and Library (DoA) and professionals from the CyArk foundation – developed a coordinated strategy to document four temples in the site of Bagan (Myanmar). On-field work included capacity-building activities to train local emerging professionals in the heritage field (graduate and undergraduate students from the Yangon Technological University) and to increase the technical knowledge of the local DoA staff in the digital documentation field. Due to the short time of the on-field activity and the need to record several monuments, a variety of documentation techniques, including image and non-image based ones, were used. Afterwards, the information acquired during the fieldwork was processed to develop a solid base for the conservation and monitoring of the four documented temples. The relevance of developing this kind of documentation in Bagan is related to the vulnerability of the site, often affected by natural seismic events and flooding, as well as the lack of maintenance. Bagan provided an excellent case study to test the effectiveness of the proposed approach, to prevent and manage the damages of catastrophic events, and to support retrofitting actions. In order to test the flexibility of adopted methodology and workflow, temples with different features – in terms of architectural design, shape, and geometry – were selected. The goals of these documentation activities range from testing digital documentation workflows for the metric and visual recording of the site (reviewing strengths and limitations of particular recording techniques), to the definition of effective conditions assessment strategies.

Natural events and accidents with hazardous materials

Characteristics and competition structure of Turkish insurance industry

Heavy precipitation and resulting erosion of arable land present ongoing challenges in disaster prevention and agricultural management. This interdisciplinary topic is gaining significant attention due to increasing frequency of extreme events linked to climate change (IPCC, 2021; Robinson et al., 2021). According to Parkin et al. (2008), the largest amount of erosion results from extreme individual events.State-of-the-art methods for simulating heavy precipitation events involve two-dimensional, hydrodynamic-numerical models (2D models) (LUBW, 2016). Traditional erosion simulations have relied on simplified hydraulic calculations, but in this study, the hydraulics, and forces acting on the soil were precisely calculated using a 2D model as the erosion simulation critically depends on the quality of this hydraulics (Morgan et al., 1998).In contrast to well-known stream transport capacity approaches (e.g. Meyer-Peter &amp;amp; M&amp;#252;ller), the Govers (1990) approach is effective for surface runoff and is particularly suitable for simulating soil erosion on arable land (Wang et al., 2019). Therefore, this approach was selected and integrated into the existing sediment transport module of the 2D HydroAS model.To calibrate and validate the model, natural erosion events caused by heavy precipitation were recorded using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and analysed. Erosion areas were chosen and simulated using the combined model. The simulation results show both sheet and rill erosion. To assess the simulation results, the spatial distribution of the rill erosion and the erosion quantity were determined and compared with the natural events. Erosion on arable land can be simulated both spatially and quantitatively by coupling the Govers approach with the 2D HydroAS model. However, erosion quantities are highly dependent on the rill size and model resolution, representing minimum erosion.Assessing sedimentation amount and its spatial distribution is also crucial for evaluating erosion risks due to heavy precipitation. The transfer of sediments from erosion areas to downstream ecosystems or settlements can negatively impact farmers, residents, and ecosystems. Sediment flow analysis is currently being conducted.

Abstract— The occurrence of shock metamorphosed quartz is the most common petrographic criterion for the identification of terrestrial impact structures and lithologies. Its utility is due to its almost ubiquitous occurrence in terrestrial rocks, its overall stability and the fact that a variety of shock metamorphic effects, occurring over a range of shock pressures, have been well documented. These shock effects have been generally duplicated in shock recovery experiments and, thus, serve as shock pressure barometers. After reviewing the general character of shock effects in quartz, the differences between experimental and natural shock events and their potential effects on the shock metamorphism of quartz are explored. The short pulse lengths in experiments may account for the difficulty in synthesizing the high‐pressure polymorphs, coesite and stishovite, compared to natural occurrences. In addition, post‐shock thermal effects are possible in natural events, which can affect shock altered physical properties, such as refractive index, and cause annealing of shock damage and recrystallization. The orientations of planar microstructures, however, are unaffected by post‐impact thermal events, except if quartz is recrystallized, and provide the best natural shock barometer in terms of utility and occurrence. The nature of planar microstructures, particularly planar deformation features (PDFs), is discussed in some detail and a scheme of variations in orientations with shock pressure is provided. The effect of post‐impact events on PDFs is generally limited to annealing of the original glass lamellae to produce decorated PDFs, resulting from the exsolution of dissolved water during recrystallization. Basal (0001) PDFs differ from other PDF orientations in that they are multiple, mechanical Brazil twins, which are difficult to detect if not partially annealed and decorated. The occurrence and significance of shock metamorphosed quartz and its other phases (namely, coesite, stishovite, diaplectic glass and lechatelierite) are discussed for terrestrial impact structures in both crystalline (non‐porous) and sedimentary (porous) targets. The bulk of past studies have dealt with crystalline targets, where variations in recorded shock pressure in quartz have been used to constrain aspects of the cratering process and to estimate crater dimensions at eroded structures. In sedimentary targets, the effect of pore space results in an inhomogeneous distribution in recorded shock pressure and temperature, which requires a different classification scheme for the variation of recorded shock compared to that in crystalline targets. This is discussed, along with examples of variations in the relative abundances of planar microstructures and their orientations, which are attributed to textural variations in sedimentary target rocks. Examples of the shock metamorphism of quartz in distal ejecta, such as at the K/T boundary, and from nuclear explosions are illustrated and are equivalent to that of known impact structures, except with respect to characteristics that are due to long‐term, post‐shock thermal effects. Finally, the differences between the deformation and phase transformation of quartz by shock and by endogenic, tectonic and volcanic processes are discussed. We confirm previous conclusions that they are completely dissimilar in character, due to the vastly different physical conditions and time scales typical for shock events, compared to tectonic and volcanic events. Well‐characterized and documented shock effects in quartz are unequivocal indicators of impact in the natural environment.

Current The aim of current study is to investigate the impact of natural disaster on stock market in case cement sector of Pakistan. The approach of current study is to explore the effect of natural disaster on change in stock price in a given index. The study has used event study methodology to explore the relationship. Stock markets react differently from certain natural disaster events. The natural events, flood, earthquake, extreme temperature, land sliding, has significant effect on stock prices and its effect on share price volatility. All evidence provide from Pakistan stock exchange.