Psychological Risk Factors of Future Drug Offending among Young Offenders in Hong Kong - A Longitudinal Study

Elise S W Hung

doi:10.5539/ijps.v12n4p31

Abstract

In recent years there is a growing concern on drug offenders in Hong Kong. Despite its over-representation in prison and recidivists, drug offending has seldom been studied systematically in risk factor research. The issue as to whether drug offending has specific psychological risk factors or they share a common set of risk factors with general offending remains largely unaddressed. This research applied a longitudinal design to investigate this issue. Using a data-set on young offenders&rsquo; psychological characteristics established in 2004 in the Hong Kong Correctional Services, and re-conviction data retrieved 11 years later in 2015, ANCOVA with planned orthogonal contrasts and Discriminant Function Analysis, Correlation and Regression analyses were used to analyze factors predicting post-release outcomes including recidivism, drug offending, and crime severity. Results revealed two sets of psychological risk factors with little overlap that could predict general recidivism (of all types of crime) and future drug offending. Recidivism could be predicted by low Future Time Perspective and Empathy, and high Assertiveness. Low Empathy was predictive of post-release crime severity of non-drug offending recidivists. Drug offending, in contrast, could be predicted by high Impulsiveness and Social Problem-solving deficits during adolescence. These two variables, together with low Assertiveness, also predicted post-release crime severity of drug-offending recidivists. Implications to future intervention and research were discussed.

Highlights

According to the World Health Organization (2020), an estimate of 275 million people used illicit drugs, such as cannabis, amphetamines, and cocaine, and some 31 million of people who use drugs suffer from drug use disorders
Based on records of the Hong Kong Correctional Services (HKCS) (2018), 80 percent of prisoners in high-security institutions in 2017 had committed serious drug offences directly related to drugs
Drug abuse is seldom discussed in isolation from drug offending, which refers to the “possession, use, sale or furnishing of any drug or intoxicating substance or drug paraphernalia that is prohibited by law” (USLegal, 2019)

Summary

Introduction

According to the World Health Organization (2020), an estimate of 275 million people used illicit drugs, such as cannabis, amphetamines, and cocaine, and some 31 million of people who use drugs suffer from drug use disorders. According to the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 19.7 millions American adults and approximately 4% (i.e. 992 000) of the American adolescent population aged 12 to 17 suffered from a substance use disorder in 2017 (Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, 2018). Drug-involved individuals are statistically shown to be over-represented in the offender population in Hong Kong. Drug abuse is seldom discussed in isolation from drug offending, which refers to the “possession, use, sale or furnishing of any drug or intoxicating substance or drug paraphernalia that is prohibited by law” (USLegal, 2019). Drug offending is an alarming type of specific offending because increased drug use was associated with increased drug availability (National Drug Intelligence Center, 2011). Drug offenders were seldom studied as systematically as other specific offenders like sexual and violent offenders, for whom risk assessment tools had been well developed and validated

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Conclusion