Abstract
In modelling human behavior during a fire, one has to deal with uncertainties regarding the psychological response due to limited or incomplete knowledge database. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new fuzzy Bayesian Network framework to model causal relationship of psychological response at the initial stage of fire events. Firstly, a new conceptual model namely the PRiF (Psychological Response in a Fire) is developed through the literature of human behaviour in fire evacuation modelling and expert opinion approach. Then, the expert elicitation using fuzzy linguistic concept was adapted in quantifying the PRiF model. Finally, an example of expert elicitation study is demonstrated to illustrate the practical application of the proposed methodology. Results show that the proposed methodology is not only able to capture the sequence of psychological reactions in line with the theory of human behavior in a fire but also can quantitatively measure the likelihood of circumstances of possible undesired scenario, and identify the most influential factors or prioritize the root causes of unsuccessful safe evacuation.
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