Psychological AI: Designing Algorithms Informed by Human Psychology.

Abstract

Psychological artificial intelligence (AI) applies insights from psychology to design computer algorithms. Its core domain is decision-making under uncertainty, that is, ill-defined situations that can change in unexpected ways rather than well-defined, stable problems, such as chess and Go. Psychological theories about heuristic processes under uncertainty can provide possible insights. I provide two illustrations. The first shows how recency-the human tendency to rely on the most recent information and ignore base rates-can be built into a simple algorithm that predicts the flu substantially better than did Google Flu Trends's big-data algorithms. The second uses a result from memory research-the paradoxical effect that making numbers less precise increases recall-in the design of algorithms that predict recidivism. These case studies provide an existence proof that psychological AI can help design efficient and transparent algorithms.