Psychohistory in the Making?

Abstract

The highs and lows of Nash's life are out of the range of experience of most human beings. As an undergraduate, he initiated the modern theory of eco nomic bargaining. His graduate thesis formulated the idea of a Nash equilibri um, which is now regarded as the basic building block of the theory of games. He went on to solve major problems in pure mathematics, using methods of such originality that his reputation as a mathematical genius of the first rank be came firmly established. But at the age of 30 he fell prey to a serious schizophrenic illness, which persisted for many years, during which time he languished in ob scurity. By the early 1990s, he was no longer delusional, although this fact was not widely appreciated. Fortunately, his recovery was brought to the attention of the Nobel comrnittee just as they were deciding who should get a Nobel Prize for game theory, which had by degrees totally transformed the face of economic theory while Nash was out of action. Tom Siegfried's A Beautiful Math surfs Nash's recent wave of popular ity. The book is certainly a lot of fun. One cannot help but be carried away by Siegfried's irrepressible enthusi asm and jaunty style. In a magnificent flight of fancy he compares John Nash with Hari Seldon, a fictional charac ter in Isaac Asimov's Foundation Se ries. In the series, Seldon invents the mythical science of psychohistory, a theory capable of predicting the course of humanity's future throughout the galaxy. Siegfried then grandiosely says that the game theorists who follow in Nash's footsteps are engaged in a simi lar quest for the code of nature. It is true that game theorists do be lieve that their discipline will inevita bly be part of any serious science of humanity that may emerge in the fu ture. It is also true that game theory is already a major tool in economics, evolutionary biology and political phi losophy. But it doesn't help our project to promote the myth that John Nash is some kind of superman. (Neither is he the evil genius who is responsible for everything that is wrong in the modern world?as is ludicrously argued in a re cent television documentary called The Trap.) The truth is that Nash is simply the most talented of a group of talented people whose joint efforts created mod ern game theory. If Siegfried's concept of a real-life psychohistory is ever real ized, Nash will be remembered only as a foot soldier in an army of scientists who will have made discoveries we