PSR-FCCLP model based total maximum allocated loads optimization of TN and TP in Bohai Bay.

Abstract

Eutrophication is a global problem for coastal ecosystems, one that Bohai Bay, China, has been severely afflicted due to rapid economic and social development in the past decades. It was urgent to manage the total maximum allocated loads (TMALs) of the total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) on land-based, which was closely related to coastal eutrophication. In this study, from the perspective of economy-resources-environment (ERE) system, we presented the fuzzy credibility constrained linear programming based on pressure-state-response (PSR-FCCLP) model, which calculated the TMALs of TN and TP at three credibility levels (λ=0.55, 0.75, and 0.95) in Bohai Bay. The results showed that when the credibility level increased from 0.55 to 0.95, the TMALs of TN and TP would decrease from 13,573.38t/a to 12,820.00t/a and from 2665.58t/a to 2514.90t/a, respectively. This study will provide support for environmental management in coastal regions.