Psoas Muscle Density in Combination with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score Can Improve Survival Predictability in Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunts

Abstract

PurposeTo examine the role of psoas muscle density (PD) measurement before transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation in predicting survival when combined with Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. Materials and MethodsThe medical records of 241 patients with cirrhosis who underwent TIPS creation between June 2005 and June 2015 were retrospectively reviewed. The patients were divided into 2 groups: those with variceal bleeding (VB; n = 113) and those with volume overload (VO; n = 128). The study included 149 men (62%), and mean patient age was 56 years ± 9.6 (range 24–83). Mean MELD score before TIPS creation was 11.8 ± 5.7. A threshold sensitivity of pre-TIPS PD for the assessment of mortality was calculated and then correlated with survival after TIPS creation. Receiver operating characteristic curves comparing 12-month mortality were used to assess the improvement in survival predictability after TIPS creation when the PD threshold was combined with MELD score vs MELD score alone. ResultsMean post-TIPS follow-up was 29.9 month ± 34.1 (range 1–3700 days). There was no significant difference in 3- or 12-month mortality rates between the VB and VO groups (32.7% vs 25.8% [P = .23] and 46% vs 46.1% [P = .99], respectively). The MELD score threshold for prediction of survival was 15 (P < .0001). There was no difference in the mean PD between VB and VO groups (34.2 HU ± 8.8 and 33.1 HU ± 10.3, respectively; P = .359). The increase in MELD score after TIPS creation was significant in both groups (VB, P = .0013; VO, P < .0001). The threshold of pre-TIPS PD for discrimination of survival was 29.4 HU (P < .0001), and PD measurements greater than this threshold were associated with a lower risk of mortality (hazard ratio, 0.27; 95% confidence interval, 0.13–0.57; P = .0006). Compared with the use of MELD score alone, the addition of PD measurement significantly increased the area under the curve from 0.61 to 0.68 (P = .0006). ConclusionsMeasurement of PD improved overall survival predictability in patients with cirrhosis undergoing TIPS creation when used in conjunction with MELD score. The best survival outcome was observed in patients with MELD score < 15 in combination with PD > 29.4 HU.