PSO Based Optimized Ensemble Learning and Feature Selection Approach for Efficient Energy Forecast

Abstract

Swarm intelligence techniques with incredible success rates are broadly used for various irregular and interdisciplinary topics. However, their impact on ensemble models is considerably unexplored. This study proposes an optimized-ensemble model integrated for smart home energy consumption management based on ensemble learning and particle swarm optimization (PSO). The proposed model exploits PSO in two distinct ways; first, PSO-based feature selection is performed to select the essential features from the raw dataset. Secondly, with larger datasets and comprehensive range problems, it can become a cumbersome task to tune hyper-parameters in a trial-and-error manner manually. Therefore, PSO was used as an optimization technique to fine-tune hyper-parameters of the selected ensemble model. A hybrid ensemble model is built by using combinations of five different baseline models. Hyper-parameters of each combination model were optimized using PSO followed by training on different random samples. We compared our proposed model with our previously proposed ANN-PSO model and a few other state-of-the-art models. The results show that optimized-ensemble learning models outperform individual models and the ANN-PSO model by minimizing RMSE to 6.05 from 9.63 and increasing the prediction accuracy by 95.6%. Moreover, our results show that random sampling can help improve prediction results compared to the ANN-PSO model from 92.3% to around 96%.