Abstract
<p>We perform aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (APSHA) of the ongoing aftershock sequence following the Amatrice August 24th, 2016 Central Italy earthquake. APSHA is a time-dependent PSHA calculation where earthquake occurrence rates decrease after the occurrence of a mainshock following an Omori-type decay. In this paper we propose a fault source model based on preliminary evidence of the complex fault geometry associated with the mainshock. We then explore the possibility that the aftershock seismicity is distributed either uniformly or non-uniformly across the fault source. The hazard results are then computed for short-intermediate exposure periods (1-3 months, 1 year). They are compared to the background hazard and intended to be useful for post-earthquake safety evaluation.</p>
Highlights
The event of August 24th, 2016 in Central Italy caused devastating damage and 298 deaths, in spite of the well-known high seismic hazard of the region
Prospective work should aim at merging aftershock probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (APSHA) with MPS04, or with updated release of the Italian reference hazard map; future efforts should include the new information about site-effects that are being currently acquired by several institutions [www.centro microzonazionesismica.it/it/attivita/41-ilcentroms-per-il-terremoto-italia-centrale-2016]
We set up a model for APSHA, in Central Italy, after the devastating event of August, 24
Summary
The event of August 24th, 2016 in Central Italy caused devastating damage and 298 deaths, in spite of the well-known high seismic hazard of the region. Preliminary scientific data have been progressively provided, complemented and updated [e.g. Gruppo di Lavoro INGV, 2016a, b; Marinkovic and Larsen, 2016; ReLUIS-INGV Workgroup, 2016; GL IREA-CNR and INGV, 2016;ran.protezionecivile.it/IT/dettaglio_evid. Since August 30th, some participants of the informal Fault2SHA working group* opened a forum [http://earthquake2016.prophpbb.com] to circulate ideas, publish material, draft papers and news within the scientific community. This attempt to debate scientific issues in real-time helped to focus investigations in the field, and motivated and boosted this work.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
