Pseudo-kohortni pristup u analizi mortaliteta stanovništva Srbije - primeri i problemi

Abstract

Paper deals with analysis of the characteristics of the pseudo-cohort method and the benefits of its use in research of mortality. With absence of adequate data, this method gives the opportunity to use a type of longitudinal analysis, that is, monitoring generational differences in mortality of the population through data on mortality, socalled. pseudo-cohorts, constructed data series, in which data for each generation is taken from the distribution of actual specific mortality rates during the calendar years through which these cohorts are monitored. The goal is to contribute to the discussion of different ways on how to use vital statistics, but above all to assist in clarifying the interrelationship of the three basic components that shape mortality trends: the impact of aging, the impact of the period and the cohort impact. In the demographic literature the impact of aging is well explained through the mortality curve, while the influence of different periods can also be relatively closely monitored and analyzed, it remains less clear how influences of the cohort can be isolated and explained. Therefore, in this paper we presented the process of constructing a pseudo-cohort, on the basis of which a graphic model can be created that indicates the existence or absence of cohort effects. Cohort impacts represent the main result of the research, with a look back on the sophisticated mathematical age-period-cohort model (APC) that is still in development, which gives the possibility of measuring the contribution of these components to the change in the mortality rate. In this research were monitored specific mortality rates of eleven generations born between 1917. and 2016. the results showed not only the existence of the decrease of the mortality level according with age, as well as the impact of the period on the movement of mortality rates over time, but also the differences between the generations themselves and the intensities of those changes in time.