Prudential Management of Hydrocarbon Revenues in Resource-rich Transition Economies

Abstract

The post-Soviet political economy of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan is characterised by authoritarian government, substantial public revenue from hydrocarbons and GDP per capita ranked ‘low’ to ‘lower middle’. The first of these weakens prudential constraints on the allocation of the second, which by more industrial diversification and policies to foster wider technology spillover from foreign direct investment could enhance the third. All three governments have established funds which reserve part of resource income on the permanent income hypothesis, but state investment during the transition period is yielding lower returns than would capital formation by a private sector.