PRS35 What IF WE HAD Achieved a More Restrictive Social Isolation? Human and Economic IMPACT

Abstract

To estimate the economic impact considering the deaths by COVID-19, depressive conditions, and the investment of the Brazilian government to control the pandemic. The perspective is that of the government of Brazil. Mortality data are those of the Brazilian government until June 26, 2020. We calculate the potential years of productive life lost from the number of deaths for the age group of 20 to 65 years. Next, we estimate the reduction in Brazilian GDP in the coming years due to deaths. The model assumes that everyone would work until age 65, and there would be no death from any cause. We made a projection of GDP per capita until the year 2,060 based on historical data from IBGE. We consider that there will be a reduction of 11.80% in the national GDP for the year 2020, we apply a discount of 5%. In addition, we added a loss of productivity due to depression with a prevalence of 14.60% that resulted in an average of 35.10% loss of productivity per capita over two years after the pandemic. The Brazilian government's expenditure on COVID-19 was consulted on the National Treasury website on July 6, 2020. 48,041 deaths occurred in Brazil generating an economic impact of R$337,491,971,541.85. If the isolation in Brazil had been higher, the number of deaths could vary from 33,629 to 40,835 with an economic impact of R$ 298,196,697,151.73 and R$ 317,055,020,203.25. If social isolation were more intensive, we could save R$ 20,436,951,338.60 to R$ 39,295,274,390.13 over the next 40 years. This emphasizes the importance of carrying out stricter isolation measures.