Proxy Star Wars: The Growing Threat of Grey-Zone Activities in the Space Domain

Abstract

he space domain is a contested and congested environment, with an overlap of military and commercial interests leading to an increasing number of “grey-zone” operations. Grey-zone operations are activities which fall below the threshold for a conventional military response, and are performed in ways that make attribution too uncertain to justify kinetic countermeasures. These operations push the boundaries of the law, technology and territorial integrity. A failure to direct an appropriate level of attention to counter space activity, or establish policy and behavioural norms, leaves scope for rapid escalation of force toward the threshold of military intervention. This paper intends to summarise past and current grey-zone activities in the space domain, identify key technologies, as well as forecast development trends. And, finally, it will reflect on the political ramifications of the escalating militarisation of the space-domain. Keywords: Grey-zone, Anti-Satellite, Counter-Space, Hybrid-Operations, Lawfare