Abstract
How does the spatial proximity to changing environmental conditions translate into political preferences? Existing public opinion research emphasizes the importance of attitudinal and informational cues in the formation of political preferences and minimizes the role of personal or spatially proximate experiences (Ramirez and Erickson, 2014). Yet, recent research shows that spatial variables may influence beliefs about global climate change. This research proposes a Spatial Proximity Model of public opinion that incorporates the spatial proximity of natural disasters into how citizens form their beliefs about global warming. The model predicts that media coverage connecting local environmental disasters to climate change will be associated with support for pro-environmental policies, but only among the subset of the public most likely to be predisposed to oppose such policies. Thus, spatial proximity to an extreme weather event is a potential mechanism to alter climate change opinions in a manner contrary to existing political cleavages.
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