Abstract
The current fertility rate in Oman declined dramatically from a very high rate of 8.6 births per woman in 1988 to 4.8 births per woman in 2000, a decline of nearly four births per woman or a decline of 44 per cent of total fertility over a period of twelve years. This decline has occurred in the absence of any official national level family planning programme. Using recent national level survey data and the Bongaarts framework of the proximate determinants of fertility, in this study an attempt has been made to identify the factors responsible for such remarkable decline in fertility in Oman. The results indicate that a decrease in the age-specific proportions of women who are married, followed by an increase in contraceptive use are the most important mechanisms by which fertility has declined in Oman. Women education and employment are likely factors that encourage couples to delay marriage and use modern family planning methods and thus reduce marital fertility.
Highlights
Like most of the Middle Eastern and Arab countries, Oman is a high fertility country with a high population growth rate
The results show that the total fertility rate declined from 8.6 births per woman in 1988 to 4.8 births per woman in 2000—a decline of 3.8 births per woman over a short period of 12 years
Within a period of seven years, starting from 1988 to 1995, fertility declined by 1.5 births per woman, or 18 percent (2.6 percent per year), while for the following five-year period (1995 to 2000), it declined by 2.25 births per woman or 32 percent (6.4 percent per year)
Summary
Like most of the Middle Eastern and Arab countries, Oman is a high fertility country (about 5 births per woman) with a high population growth rate (about 2 percent per annum). The government of Oman considers the current fertility rate to be high, but would like to maintain it (Sulaiman et al 2000). The total fertility rate (TFR), which was more than 8 births per woman in the late 1980s, declined to about 5 births per woman in 2000 (Sulaiman et al 1992, 2000; Eltigani 2001a, 2001b). In a pro-natalist country like Oman, where there is no official population policy, the rapid decline in fertility by more than 3 births per woman in just over one decade might be interesting for other high fertility countries. Mainly from rural to urban areas and from the interior to more developed areas, is important in shaping the contemporary social structure of the Omani population
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