Provoking an Overreaction: Transborder Guerrilla Warfare in the Kenya-Somalia Borderlands

Abstract

ABSTRACT Scholars have shed much light on the positive correlation between foreign military interventions and blowback in the form of transnational violence, such as terrorist and guerrilla attacks. While the strategies of transnational terrorism have been widely addressed in the literature, the strategies of transborder guerrilla warfare have received little attention. Since Kenya deployed troops to Somalia in 2011, Al-Shabaab has carried out reprisal attacks in Kenya in an attempt to wear down their opponents. Using new primary evidence from Somalia and Kenya, I demonstrate that Al-Shabaab frequently stages transborder guerrilla operations at the margins of Kenya with the intention of provoking a violent overreaction from the Kenyan state against ethnic Somalis who dominate the Kenya-Somalia borderlands. The resulting repressive governmental response has strengthened perceived divisions and mistrust among Kenyan Somalis, sparked virulent public anger in Somalia, and reinforced the public image of Kenya as an unfriendly foreign occupying force. Despite the costly militant casualties, the findings reveal that militant groups prioritize transborder guerrilla attacks over transnational terrorist violence primarily due to the resultant state repression against their presumed constituency. These findings contribute to the broader analytical literature on militant organizations’ strategic goals.