Provision of usable projections of future water availability for southeastern Australia: The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative

Abstract

Projections of future water availability are required by water managers and policy makers in order to take action to mitigate some of the potentially negative impacts of climate change on water supplies in the urban, agricultural and environmental sectors. However, in order to do this, these projections must have some level of confidence associated with them, and even if this is the case, the research community must make the data and/or information available in a format that is directly usable by water managers and policy makers. This paper presents results from a water availability study recently carried out across southeastern Australia as part of the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative. More importantly, it shows how the results of this study have been used in defining a range of plausible future streamflow scenarios to be used by water resource managers in the state of Victoria in updating its water supply-demand strategies for the next 50 years. Climate change projections for this region were summarised by creating “dry”, “wet” and “median” future runoff scenarios for 2030 and 2060 based on the second driest, second wettest and median global climate model (GCM) results. These results were then averaged across 27 catchments covering the state of Victoria. We contend that in areas such as the state of Victoria where there is near-unanimous agreement among GCMs as to the direction of climate change impacts on rainfall, along with theoretical understanding consistent with changes in large scale circulation in a warmer world, projected changes in water availability can be used by water resource planners to assist them in better planning for future changes in supply.