Abstract
In this paper, we quantify the effects of an increase in the public provision of health services in a set of 12 emerging economies (i.e., Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, India, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Russia, South Africa and Tunisia), representing 45% of world population in 2018. We use a computable general equilibrium model and simulate an increase in the real government expenditure devoted to public health services up to a 20% of total government expenditure, which is also assumed to raise labour productivity. This increase leads to expansionary effects in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment for all the economies under analysis and an increase in the ratio of government deficit to GDP, ranging between 3.66 points for Russia and 0.24 points for Colombia. If, in addition, direct tax rates on labour are increased to offset this result, the effects on GDP and employment become contractionary in most cases; whereas if indirect tax rates are those to be increased, small expansionary effects are again the norm with the only exception of Russia.
Highlights
In 2015 the United Nations General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), i.e., a collection of 17 global goals designed to achieve a more sustainable future for the planet
It is assumed that the rest of government expenditure does not change; since the whole public expenditure is endogenous, this policy measure amounts to a fiscal expansion
We have tried to quantify the effects of an increase in the public provision of health services in a set of emerging economies, using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which allows obtaining the consequences of changes in a particular variable on the whole economy, as well as the specific effects across the different productive sectors
Summary
In 2015 the United Nations General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), i.e., a collection of 17 global goals designed to achieve a more sustainable future for the planet. When looking at the ratio of the government health expenditure to the total government expenditure, the results are Sustainability 2020, 12, 6546 not so clear-cut; even so, developed countries show in general larger figures, above 20% in Japan and the United States, and not far in several countries (such as Australia, Canada, Germany, Sweden and the United Kingdom), with the rest of countries showing ratios close to 15% Summarising, emerging countries, such as those analysed in this paper, show a lower public involvement in the provision of health services; in those countries with a total health expenditure closer to that of developed countries, this is due to the contribution of the private sector, which presumably does not extend to broad segments of the population, especially, e.g., for poorer people or for residents in rural areas.
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