Provincial-scale assessment of vulnerability and resilience to drought in China

Abstract

Frequent droughts have caused severe disaster losses in China. Such events can be minimized by enhancing the country's resilience and reducing its vulnerability, where this can ensure socioeconomic stability and sustainable development. Evaluating the vulnerability and resilience to drought is thus crucial for effectively managing the risk of disasters and promoting sustainable socioeconomic development. In this study, we constructed a comprehensive framework to assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of China's vulnerability and resilience to drought at the provincial scale from an input-output perspective by using the Super-Efficiency Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model and the Super-Efficiency Slacks-Based Measure DEA (SBM-DEA) model. This study focused on drought drivers, the disaster-forming environment, drought bearers, disaster intensity, and recovery. The results showed that the vulnerability to drought of 42 % of China's provinces decreased from 2010 to 2022, that of only 29 % of the provinces increased, while the status of a majority of provinces improved in general. The center of gravity of the vulnerability to drought moved toward the southwest over time and a spatial clustering of vulnerability was observed, with High-High clusters moving from the north to the south. Moreover, the resilience to drought declined in 36 % of provinces and increased in only 20 %, reflecting poor resilience overall. The center of gravity of China's overall resilience to drought moved northward, with a relatively stable spatial pattern and prominent clusters of Low-Low resilience indicating a pressing need for improvement. Areas with high vulnerability and low resilience were concentrated in inland western and eastern regions, and this highlights the importance of drought prevention and mitigation in provinces like Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, and Fujian. The findings here provide valuable insights for mitigating the risk of drought and promoting sustainable socioeconomic development.