Provincial equity and enhanced health are key drivers for China's 2060 carbon neutrality

Abstract

China's ambitious 2060 carbon neutrality target necessitates innovative strategies to address the country's status as the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter. This study employs the Global Change Analysis Model to develop a provincial-differentiated control strategy (EQU scenario) that not only aims to meet the national carbon neutrality goal but also enhances population health and environmental equity. The EQU scenario forecasts substantial reductions in average population weighted PM2.5 and O3 concentrations to 7 μg/m3 and 34 ppb, respectively, by 2060. In comparison to a baseline scenario (NEU), the EQU scenario offers more equitable air quality improvements and significant health benefits, potentially preventing 39 thousand PM2.5-related and 10 thousand O3-related premature deaths, with minimal additional cost. The Gini coefficient, indicating CO2 emission distribution inequality among provinces, is projected to decrease from 0.58 in NEU to 0.37 in EQU. This scenario anticipates about one-third of provinces achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, with a harmonized provincial carbon neutrality capacity. The study highlights the critical importance of integrating provincially differentiated controls within national decarbonization strategies, advancing equitable deep decarbonization and reinforcing environmental justice in China.