Province-level techno-economic feasibility analysis of baseload supply from hybrid renewable energy systems in China

Abstract

To promote the large-scale deployment and grid integration of renewable-based power system, this paper investigates the province-level techno-economic feasibility of wind-photovoltaic-battery hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) for baseload supply application around China. Firstly, the power generation cost and grid parity potential of province-level standalone wind and photovoltaic power plants are assessed. Then, the optimal sizing of province-level HRESs aims to minimize the net present cost and meet the reliability constraint for baseload supply, which is solved by teaching and learning-based optimization. Finally, the techno-economic comparison between different system configurations, the correlation between HRES cost-effectiveness and resource potential as well as resources complementarity, and the grid parity potential of HRES for baseload supply are quantitatively analyzed. The results reveal that: (i) 84.4% of regions in China can achieve solar photovoltaic plant-side grid parity in 2022, while only 15.6% of regions can achieve wind power plant-side grid parity; (ii) HRESs in all regions are technically feasible but not cost-effective for baseload supply; (iii) wind-photovoltaic-battery HRES is the optimal configuration for most regions, indicating that the wind-solar hybridization is more reliable and cost-effective than standalone power plants; (iv) the economic performance of HRES depends mainly on the wind-solar joint resource potentials and the supply-demand relative deviation; (v) investment cost reduction and utilization of energy curtailment are promising to help HRES achieve plant-side grid parity for baseload supply. The findings of this paper can help policy-makers and investors optimally determine the national pathway of renewable energy transition.