Providing an Integrated Strategic Foresight Evaluation Process Model at National Level with an Interpretive Structural Modeling Approach

Abstract

Purpose: The present study is an attempt to provide an integrated process model that identifies the most important dimensions and components of strategic foresight evaluation at the national level capable of step-by-step evaluation of strategic foresight projects. Methods: The mixed research method has been selected according to the purpose of the research. The present paper has two steps: the first step includes examining the methodological foundations, approaches and theoretical foundations to identify the dimensions of the strategic foresight evaluation framework and the second step to provide and implement an integrated strategic foresight evaluation process model based on interpretive structural modeling. Findings: In this model, with the opinion of experts and using a questionnaire, the linkage of 14 sub-processes of strategic foresight evaluation have been identified and explained at 7 levels. Conclusion: In order to evaluate strategic foresight using the theoretical foundations of policy evaluation, project evaluation, and strategic control, we must first examine the criteria of strategic foresight project, analyze the project position and identify its characteristic then must develop the evaluation plan. Comparative evaluation and process evaluation must be considered in the fourth level and in the fifth level the evaluation of results and effects should be considered. In the sixth level, the implementation guarantee, strategy implementation and strategy content are examined and controlled, and then in the seventh level, SWOT analysis and presentation of results are considered, and finally the project capacity building is analyzed.