Providing a model for predicting futures contract of gold coin price by using models based on Z-numbers

Abstract

In this article, firstly the factors influencing the prices of cash market transactions on the basis of gold coin (Bahar Azadi coin) prices and futures contract trading on the Iran Mercantile Exchange are examined during a full year. Then, based on these factors, two new models for predicting the price of the futures contract of gold coin have been presented. These patterns are based on the general linear regression model in a vague and Z-based environment. To this end, regression estimation by the neural network with Z-number-based coefficients and D distance-based optimization technique and the Z-numbering method are used. We also compare some of the proposed methods in terms of efficiency with our previous method (which is the only method available to estimate regression coefficients). We show that the proposed method in this paper has less accuracy and less computational cost. It shows that the new proposed method has better accuracy and less computational cost. Finally, in two practical examples the price of forthcoming coins is anticipated.