Prototyping a Methodology for Long-Term (1680–2100) Historical-to-Future Landscape Modeling for the Conterminous United States

Jordan Dornbierer,Terry Sohl,Gregory Rouze,Charles Robison,Steve Wika

doi:10.3390/land10050536

Abstract

Land system change has been identified as one of four major Earth system processes where change has passed a destabilizing threshold. A historical record of landscape change is required to understand the impacts change has had on human and natural systems, while scenarios of future landscape change are required to facilitate planning and mitigation efforts. A methodology for modeling long-term historical and future landscape change was applied in the Delaware River Basin of the United States. A parcel-based modeling framework was used to reconstruct historical landscapes back to 1680, parameterized with a variety of spatial and nonspatial historical datasets. Similarly, scenarios of future landscape change were modeled for multiple scenarios out to 2100. Results demonstrate the ability to represent historical land cover proportions and general patterns at broad spatial scales and model multiple potential future landscape trajectories. The resulting land cover collection provides consistent data from 1680 through 2100, at a 30-m spatial resolution, 10-year intervals, and high thematic resolution. The data are consistent with the spatial and thematic characteristics of widely used national-scale land cover datasets, facilitating use within existing land management and research workflows. The methodology demonstrated in the Delaware River Basin is extensible and scalable, with potential applications at national scales for the United States.

Highlights

A variety of interdependent natural and socioeconomic processes drive Earth system change, with destabilization in these processes potentially having detrimental impacts on society
FORE-SCE model performance was evaluated at multiple levels: 1. Inter-scenario model comparison—We examine differences between modeled land cover over the same time intervals under different scenarios
The renewed declines in forest area after the 1970s fit the pattern of a “contemporary regressive stage” of forest transition found for the Eastern United States (US) as a whole during this time period, driven by land use intensification, urban expansion, and diminution in processes of agricultural abandonment and reforestation [56]

Summary

Introduction

A variety of interdependent natural and socioeconomic processes drive Earth system change, with destabilization in these processes potentially having detrimental impacts on society. In order to understand landscape change and the impacts it has on natural and anthropogenic systems, a unified Earth System Science (ESS) framework has emerged around three interrelated foci: (1) observation and characterization of ESS, (2) computer simulations of future system dynamics, and (3) assessments and synthesis of interrelationships of ESS components [4]. One key element of a unified ESS framework is the characterization of the Earth’s landscape via land cover. Land cover data capture anthropogenic activity on the physical landscape, thereby representing a unique connection point between physical systems (e.g., hydrologic, biogeochemical, ecological) and human behavior. To understand landscape change and the impacts it has on human and natural systems, a historical record of land cover is required, along with corresponding data on the impacts of that change [5,6]. Scenarios of future landscape change are required to facilitate landscape planning and potentially mitigate negative impacts [7,8]

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Methods

Results