Prototype of Simulation model of Socio-epidemiological and economic consequences on the example of Russian Federation subjects

Abstract

Processes associated with extraordinary events that are difficult to control and evaluate, as a rule, are built on patterns of past events or historical analogues, but the spread of coronavirus infection is a kind of unique phenomenon that has affected all spheres of life of states and the world as a whole. This article is a continuation of a study related to the assessment of the socio-epidemiological and economic consequences that led to the spread of COVID-19. Previously, the architecture of the model was created taking into account world practices for building such blocks for simulation models. The prototype combines three fully functional blocks. At this stage of the study, a prototype model was formed, which takes into account demographic, epidemiological and economic processes that are closely related to each other. The simulation has been running continuously since 2018 and covers three chronological periods - before the pandemic, during the pandemic and the forecast period. The experiment ends in 2025, after which a set of statistical indicators is produced for the three aligned blocks. The prototype model has prospects for expansion to all subjects of the Russian Federation. Also, if you add a loading module, it can be launched using supercomputer technologies on a scale of 1: 1 in terms of the number of agents that form an artificial society on the basis of which scenario experiments were carried out.