Protest trajectories in electoral authoritarianism: from Russia’s “For Fair Elections” movement to Alexei Navalny’s presidential campaign

Abstract

ABSTRACT How do protest movements affect electoral politics in electoral authoritarianism? Related research has usually focused on the immediate effects of protests on regime change, while longer time periods have received less attention. To address this shortcoming, this paper explores the 2017/18 presidential campaign of the Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny, asking how it was related to earlier contentious episodes, beginning with the countrywide protest wave of 2011/12. Drawing on qualitative and quantitative data sources, I argue that these protests affected different categories of actors differently. While they clearly provided Navalny with a boost in recognizability among the population, they were less important for mobilizing the online supporters of his 2017/18 campaign. At the same time, previous movement experience appears to have been vital for the political socialization of a significant share of Navalny’s core activists. Considered together, the results attest to the importance of studying the long-term trajectories of protest in stable electoral authoritarian contexts.