Protecting Infrastructure and Public Buildings against Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

Paul Chinowsky,Jacob Helman

doi:10.3390/su131910538

Paul Chinowsky, Jacob Helman

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/su131910538

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Abstract

The national study analyzes sea level rise (SLR) impacts based on 36 different SLR and storm surge scenarios across 5.7 million geographic locations and 3 time periods. Taking an approach based on engineering design guidelines and current cost estimates, the study details projected cost impacts for states and cities. These impacts are presented from multiple perspectives, including total cost for constructing seawalls, costs per capita, and costs per square kilometer. The purpose of the study is to identify specific locations where infrastructure is vulnerable to rising sea levels. The study finds that Sea Level Rise (SLR) and minimal storm surge is a USD 400 billion threat to the coastline of the lower 48 United States by 2040 that includes a need for at least 80,000 km of protective barriers. The research is limited in its scope to protecting coastal infrastructure with seawalls to enable consistency throughout the study. The study is original in that it is an effort across the lower 48 states to identify infrastructure that is vulnerable, as well as the cost associated with protecting this infrastructure.

Highlights

Climate change presents a wide range of challenges for infrastructure owners, planners, and users
As detailed in the methodology section, the current study analyzed 36 different climate projections to determine the potential impacts of Sea Level Rise (SLR) and storm surge
The analysis presented is based on future projections of median floodwater depths, computed as the superposition of SLR and 1-year storm surge, targeting both 2040 and 2100 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5

Summary

Introduction

Climate change presents a wide range of challenges for infrastructure owners, planners, and users Of these potential impacts, the one that is predicted to have one of the largest ramifications in the United States, is Sea Level Rise (SLR). If a rising temperature continues to manifest on a global scale, sea level rise will occur mainly due to a combination of thermal expansion of sea water and the melting of land-based ice into the ocean [1] The consequences of this sea level rise on coastal road networks, buildings, and infrastructure due to economic, social, and environmental costs are predicted to be substantial [2,3,4]. Estimates for the number of people that could be impacted by SLR vary, based on the expected depth associated with the SLR, but range from a potential 4.2 million people at immediate risk of inundation to 13.1 million people at extreme risk in the year 2100 [6]

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