Abstract
BackgroundClimate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, pushing species to shift their distribution ranges and making existing protected areas inadequate. Estimating species distribution and potential modifications under climate change are then necessary for adjusting conservation and management plans; this is especially true for endangered species. An example of this issue is the huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus), an endemic endangered deer from the southern Andes Range, with less than 2,000 individuals. It is distributed in fragmented populations along a 2,000 km latitudinal gradient, in Chile and Argentina. Several threats have reduced its distribution to <50% of its former range.MethodsTo estimate its potential distribution and protected areas effectiveness, we constructed a species distribution model using 2,813 huemul presence points throughout its whole distribution range, together with 19 bioclimatic layers and altitude information from Worldclim. Its current distribution was projected for years 2050 and 2070 using five different Global Climate Models estimated for scenarios representing two carbon Representative Concentration Routes (RCP)—RCP4.5 and RCP6.0.ResultsBased on current huemul habitat variables, we estimated 91,617 km2 of suitable habitat. In future scenarios of climate change, there was a loss of suitable habitat due to altitudinal and latitudinal variation. Future projections showed a decrease of 59.86–60.26% for the year 2050 and 58.57–64.34% for the year 2070 according to RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, respectively. Protected areas only covered only 36.18% of the present distribution, 38.57–34.94% for the year 2050 and 30.79–31.94% for 2070 under climate change scenarios.DiscussionModeling current and future huemul distributions should allow the establishment of priority conservation areas in which to focus efforts and funds, especially areas without official protection. In this way, we can improve management in areas heavily affected by climate change to help ensure the persistence of this deer and other species under similar circumstances worldwide.
Highlights
Protected areas are one of the best tools for species and ecosystems conservation (Coetzee, 2017)
Projection of the distribution model of huemul under two scenarios of climate change To evaluate possible effects of climate change on huemul distribution, we modeled outcomes of current huemul distribution on layers of five future Global Climate Models
We found at least six large areas of high suitability that are currently not protected, and which are situated near towns, cities, and other human perturbed areas: (1) the area adjacent to Nevados de Chillán, (2) the area around San Martín de los Andes, (3) a large area beginning at the north end of Puelo Lake, south through the mountain range reaching the northern shore of General Carrera Lake, (4) the area located from the southern shore of General Carrera Lake to Bernardo O’Higgins National Park, (5) small areas located outside of Torres del Paine National Park, and (6) the last suitable area located on a group of islands near Muñoz-Gamero peninsula (52◦32 0 S & 73◦13 0 W)
Summary
Protected areas are one of the best tools for species and ecosystems conservation (Coetzee, 2017). Because of climate change, some species, both animals and plants, will modify their distributions in response to new conditions, most often dispersing in search of more suitable environments (Bateman et al, 2016; Hovick et al, 2016) Under this scenario, many species would be pushed to change their distribution range and increase population fragmentation and habitat loss, in turn reducing survival and increasing extinction probability at local levels (Parmesan, 2006). Estimating species distribution and potential modifications under climate change are necessary for adjusting conservation and management plans; this is especially true for endangered species An example of this issue is the huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus), an endemic endangered deer from the southern Andes Range, with less than 2,000 individuals. Protected areas only covered only 36.18% of the present distribution, 38.57–34.94% for the year 2050 and 30.79–31.94% for 2070 under climate change scenarios
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