Prostate-specific antigen doubling time predicts clinical outcome and survival in prostate cancer patients treated with combined radiation and hormone therapy

Abstract

To determine whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) doubling time predicts clinical outcomes in patients with prostate cancer that has been treated with combined radiation and hormone therapy. We reviewed the medical records of 621 men with nonmetastatic prostate cancer treated with radiation therapy and hormone therapy between 1989 and 2003. "Any" clinical failure was defined as any distant, nodal, or local failure, or the use of salvage therapy. "True" clinical failure was defined as any distant, nodal, or local failure. PSA doubling time was calculated by using the log PSA values from patients with a PSA failure as defined by the American Society of Therapeutic Radiology Oncology consensus statement. One hundred thirty-seven men were at intermediate risk for PSA failure (as determined by T2b, Gleason score of 7, or PSA 10.1-0 ng/mL) and 484 men were at high risk for failure (T2c-4; Gleason 8-10; or PSA >20 ng/mL). Pretreatment PSA value, Gleason score, tumor stage, timing and duration of hormone therapy, radiation therapy dose, and PSA doubling time were analyzed for any associations with time to clinical failure by using Cox regression analysis. Estimates of survival were calculated by using the Kaplan-Meier method. Pairwise comparisons were made by using the log-rank test. Sixty-two men experienced any clinical failure, and 22 men experienced true clinical failure. Multivariate analysis revealed that pretreatment PSA (p = 0.013), Gleason score (p = 0.0019), and a PSA doubling time (PSADT) < or =8 months (p < 0.001) were independently associated with time to any clinical failure. Tumor stage, hormone therapy timing, hormone therapy duration, and radiation therapy dose were not statistically significant on multivariate or univariate analysis. Only hormone therapy duration (p = 0.008) and PSADT < or =8 months (<0.001) were significantly associated with time to true clinical failure. The estimated 5-year rate of any clinical failure was 9.4% for men with a PSADT >8 months and 60.4% for men with a PSA doubling time < or =8 months (p < 0.001). The estimated 5-year rate of true clinical failure was 6.5% for men with a PSADT >8 months and 68.5% for men with a PSADT < or =8 months (p < 0.001). Lower radiation dose was the only significant predictor of PSADT < or =8 months on multivariate regression analysis. The estimated 6-year overall survival rate after PSA failure was 79.1% for men with a PSADT >8 months and 29.7% for men with a PSADT < or =8 months. The median overall survival time for patients with a PSADT >8 months was not reached in this study. The median overall survival time for patients with a PSADT < or =8 months was 61.8 months (p = 0.015). In men with prostate cancer that has been treated with combined hormone and radiation therapy, a posttreatment PSADT of < or =8 months is associated with worse clinical outcomes and may be an early surrogate marker for decreased survival. These patients should be considered for more aggressive salvage therapy protocols.