Prospects of gas supplies to the European market until 2030—results from the simulation model EUGAS

Abstract

Natural gas is the fossil energy fuel estimated to have the highest demand growth rates in Europe during the first three decades in the 21st century. Hence, substantial new gas supplies are needed for the European energy markets in the coming years. In this article, future European gas supplies are quantitatively projected by using the long-term optimisation model EUGAS, developed at the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne in year 2000. The model simulations show no discernible physical gas scarcity at least for the next 20–30 years in Europe, but significant investments in new production and transportation facilities will be necessary during this time period. Diversification of supplies and political considerations will have significant impacts on the development of new gas resources and on investments needed. Nevertheless, the unit costs of supplies are moderate, and only minor cost driven price increases have to be expected during the coming decades—at least as long as future gas demand growth does not significantly exceed current projections.