Abstract
Subject Prospects for Turkey in the fourth quarter. Significance The June elections ended the dominance of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), but also led to stalemate, the four parties in parliament failing to produce a coalition government. Political discourse for the next three months will centre around the interrelated 'Kurdish question' and early elections in November, which will determine politics for years to come. Continued political uncertainty, combined with weak global economic conditions, investor worries about emerging markets and the expectation of US monetary tightening, have put pressure on the lira and financial markets.
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