Prospects for the Return of the ISIS* Terrorist Group to the Tactics of “Digital Jihad”

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the issue of the prospects for the return of the terrorist group ISIS* to the tactics of “digital jihad”. The essence of the concept of “cyberterrorism” is analyzed, and the stages and features of the formation and development of Islamist tactics in the digital space — from small actions and decentralized attacks (2003–2014) to the formation of the first own cyber structures (2014–2019) and their subsequent dismantling (2019–2022) — are highlighted. In addition, the author evaluates what propaganda models are used by ISIS* to justify digital activities: as a rule, this is a distorted interpretation of religious texts and sources of law, as well as the use of plots from Islamic history. It is noted that the departure of radicals to cyberspace can be considered, among other things, as a step towards restoring the position of the group. The author concludes that the strategy of ISIS* in cyberspace will largely depend on the decisions of the new leader of the group — however, with a high degree of probability, activities will be carried out within the same framework as in 2014–2019. To illustrate this thesis, three scenarios for the development of the situation are proposed.