Prospects for Stability in Tajikistan

Abstract

In June 2002, Tajikistan achieved five years of increasing stability after a peace agreement formally initiated a transition to national reconciliation. Theories of conflict based only on grievance or those based on fear, incentives and opportunity fail to explain the continued cooperation of opposition forces in the face of government antagonism and obstruction. A focus on the competition between groups defending incompatible frames, or interpretive schemes by which individuals label and identify events and assign values, reveals the important role of intellectuals in connecting rational strategy and grievances. In Tajikistan, the competition between recruitment appeals targeting different identities and interests depended on the capabilities and values of the intelligentsia. The peace agreement implementation process and the activity of international donors and humanitarian organizations created greater autonomy for social activists and those who produce culture. The Dartmouth Conference Sustained Dialogue intervention stimulated the development of a new political culture of tolerance for public debate. In this perspective, the frame of political change through social transformation, community action and education overcame the frame that supported violence.