Prospects for Revolution in South Africa

Abstract

The unprecedented violence that has engulfed South Africa's black townships since 1984, the creation of the United Democratic Front, and the emergence of large black trade unions have once again focused attention on the prospects for a revolutionary overthrow of the white government. Speculation has been further fueled by the relatively easy overthrows of dictatorships by popular rebellions in Iran, Haiti, and the Philippines. Indeed, some scholars and many inside the African National Congress now argue, in direct contrast to the strategic thinking of the Congress over the last twenty years, that a quantitative increase in the current form of popular protest may lead to a successful rebellion in South Africa. An examination of the revolutionary opportunities and constraints created by the most recent outbreak of protest is, therefore, necessary if the future evolution of South Africa is to be understood. After arguing that the present protest activities do not pose a threat to the continued existence of the white regime, the article will suggest what developments would indicate that a truly revolutionary situation is developing in South Africa.